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A Generalizable Approach to Predicting Performance on USMLE Step 2 CK
Wednesday, August 31, 2022

A Generalizable Approach to Predicting Performance on USMLE Step 2 CK

By: Advances in Medical Education and Practice

Advances in Medical Education and Practice (08/23/22) Vol. 2022, No. 13, P. 939 Bird, Jeffrey B.; Olvet, Doreen M.; Willey, Joanne M.; et al.

Researchers designed a linear regression model to predict learner performance on the U.S. Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 2 CK test in the wake of the Step 1 three-digit score's elimination. The authors compiled assessment data for 228 students in three cohorts (classes of 2018, 2019, and 2020), including the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Customized Assessment Service exams, and NBME Subject exams. Step 2 CK scores were calculated at the conclusion of years one and two and at three trimester periods in year three. The median MCAT percentile across the three cohorts was 90, while the mean score for the USMLE Step 1 and USMLE Step 2 CK was 239.1 and 252.5, respectively. The MCAT was not found to significantly forecast performance and was removed from the analysis. The authors discovered significant models at all five intervals, and their predictability improved as learners progressed. Inclusion of Step 1 scores did not significantly enhance the final model. The authors validated the model with a class of 2021 cohort, anticipating Step 2 CK performance within a mean square error of 8.3 point at the end of year one. Predictability grew incrementally to within a median of 5.4 points by the end of year three. "In the absence of the USMLE Step 1 three-digit score, we have found that a model using variables available to any medical school is able to effectively predict performance on the USMLE Step 2 CK exam starting as early as the end of the first year of medical school, with increasingly stronger predictions as students move through their medical education," the authors concluded.

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